August 31st, 2025
CCM Market Insight (August 2025)
After the increase in raw materials and energy prices in early August, the market remained stable for the time being and no further price hikes occurred.
However, considering the overall situation, we think it is expected to trend upward starting from October.
Capacity replacement and kiln upgrade:
Government had clearly announced that all enterprises will be required to upgrade their kiln facilities starting from October 1st, but still people are waiting and observing.
If the policy requirements will be implemented forcibly, then at latest by the mid/end of September, a series of signs will appear in the market, such as enterprises continuously purchasing large quantities of raw materials and producing as many semi-finished products as they can for stocks, etc., correspondingly, the product price in the market will definitely increase.
From production supply, if the factories will be forced to be closed for kiln upgrading, production will significantly decreased, and there will be a very severe shortage of supply.
On the other hand, now it’s gradually been entering the peak demand season, and generally October is the peak of the peak, the increasing demands will further drive up prices.
Energy supply:
Starting from late October, the northern part of China will enter winter. The heating demand will lead to increases in energy prices, which will again raise the production costs of the final products of MgO.
Price trend:
From Aug 1st, finished MgO products price had increased by about $5-7$ per ton, and this price can work for placed orders to be shipped in September.
New inquires after mid-September may face price increase. It’s hard to predict the increase amount now, because if facing a large-scale factories shutdown, the prices will not only be determined by the normal production costs, but will also be influenced by the supply and demand relationship.
