January 26^th, 2026

1. Policy Announcement & Initial Market Reaction

 

Following the Liaoning provincial policy requiring all traditional reflection kilns to be closed and tore down by December 20, 2025, most factories suspended the long-term and new customer orders, and focused on making inventory and finishing existing orders from regular clients. 
This led to a temporary supply shortage in the market, driving up finished CCM prices.

 

From late November onward, prices has been increased for multiple times, total increase can be around RMB 200/ton (≈$29/ton).

 

2. Actual Enforcement & Market Developments

 

Policy enforcement has been less stringent than officially stated. Although inspection teams began visiting factories starting from December 12, 2025 to seal kilns and mandate production stops, still some factories are not yet visited who then continue their productions secretly. Till now (around end of January, 2026), this situation still persists.

 

This causes:
- purchasing power in the consumer market has significantly declined after the price hikes, resulting in slow consumption of earlier stocks
- continued production at factories who's willing to take risks has been adding new inventory to the market, resulting in an final oversupply in fact

 
3. Pre-Holiday Market Status & Pricing Trends

 

With the Chinese New Year (CNY) approaching, some factories - aiming to collecting cash in hand and reduce inventory pressure - have indicated the willingness to offer favorable prices for large, prepaid orders. 

This shows the possibility of a price reduction for special cases, but in general it still remains at high level.

 

4. Outlook

 

Prices are expected to hold around current levels until the CNY holiday, with no significant decrease.

 

After holiday, market supply-demand situation will largely depend on whether kiln upgrade policies are enforced more strictly.
- If policies are tightened: prices may rise again with further supply constraints
- If current slack enforcement continues: factories who are unable to stand the high inventory costs for long-term, may begin discounting to clear stock. 

 

In this situation, the price maybe can return to the level of it was in November 2025, but not likely to become extra lower.

 

5. Order and Pricing Strategy Recommendations

 

Given current market conditions, the following approach is advised for order planning:

 

- For Near-Term Orders: there will be no significant price reductions in the very near future. 
  It is recommended to proceed the orders asap before the CNY holiday to secure current pricing and avoid potential delay during the peak season of vessel booking.
- For Long-Term Orders: as there is no way to predict how the policy will goes, providing firm quotations at this stage would require considering potential future price increases, which could result in less competitive offers. 

It is better to calculate the cost after the market status becomes more stable.