February 1^st, 2025

Raw material supply:
Ore mining control still continues the strict policy of 2024. Only difference is that in 2025 the mining capacity will be announced by quarter.
At the end of each quarter, according to the business conditions of each enterprise and the general market situation, the government will give approve allocation of mining capacity of  the next quarter.  
Although the minging enterprises have got their new capacity for this year, from the experience over many years passed, it can be easily known that the total minging volume is definitely not enough to supply the international market demand.

That is to say, the fact  of ore shortage has not been changed. 

We have seen the trend of ore price going up since from last week. 

After the Chinese New Year holiday, lots of factories will resume production, and it's expected that another peak demand of ore is coming, which will push for further price increases.  
Considering this situation, some factories had began to stock necessary volume of ore before holiday to prepare against latter price increases.

Capacity replacement:
The government is actively promoting capacity replacement, but enterprises are not positive at all.
For enterprises, capacity replacement is totally a new attempt, full of unknown risks: 

1) enormous capital investment; 

2) unsure of kiln type to build, the productivity of the new kiln, the quality of the finished products and their application scope, etc. 
Failuring to make sure any of these elements is feasible could lead to large losses later on. 

No enterprise starts to wipeout their current kilns or install new production lines till now.

Everyone is just holding off on any substantive action, saying that they are still preparing the required formalities.  

It is still early to know whether the government will enforce any coercive policies. 

If the government imposes the same strict requirements on capacity replacement as it does on ore control, enterprises will inevitably face huge cost increases in the future.

Price trend:
Finished product price of CCM 85%/87%/90% remains at a relatively stable level from November 2024 to the end of January 2025.
From the perspective of ore supply, ore price is expected to rise after Chinese New Year holiday, accordingly finished product price will also rise. 
Then March is the last month of the first quarter, by that time the next quarter's ore mining capacity will be carried out, which may bring new market changes. 

Taking all the information together, we believe product prices will not decrease in recently months or even in the whole year of 2025. The more we see are factors that may cause increase. 
So it is highly recommended that you make the purchase plan early to get materials reserved and also lock down price in advance.